Larry Sabato’s Coven at UVA has released their first prediction for 2020. Trump enters into the contest for those 5 states having 248 EVs in hand. The challenge for the Democrats is to somehow duplicate the “black” turnout in the Midwest that won for President Obama. They have to recapture Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
After the Civil War, the Democrats were able to re-establish local and State political parity using the minority group identity grievance doctrine that has always been at the heart of their party’s electoral appeal. But, with the exception of Grover Cleveland’s hard money reform machine and Woodrow Wilson’s luck in being able to run in a 3-way race, they were unable to find a candidate between 1868 and 1932 who could successfully appeal to every identity group within the coalition. That is the key to Ms. In life the intelligent man looks beyond the immediate effect he desired to produce to the more and more results that are likely to follow and studies them calmly and dispassionately” -Ben Boland, Famous Positions in the Game of Checkers.
Very good advice for the market in establishing a position. What if things go wrong and you are cornered. Always ask the question ‘If not? Few people have good strategies for when their assumptions are wrong. That’s the best business advice I ever got. I theorize 50’s are penumbral centers. 100’s are attractors and not so much barriers.